5.05.2005
Election Diary: Part I
[Posted 2:53 PM by Daniel Johnson]
The only interesting question about the British general election is: how come a pro-American, pro-Bush, pro-Iraq war European leader got himself re-elected? After the disgraceful campaigns of Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac, both of whom played the anti-American card for all it was worth – which turned out to be a good deal – and the ejection of Jose Maria Aznar in Spain, with a good deal of help from al-Q�aeda, this was the next big test. What happened? The anti-American parties – which in this campaign included the Conservatives -were defeated by the most pro-American prime minister since Churchill. (Not even Mrs Thatcher was quite so Atlanticist as Tony Blair.)
It is quite clear that the Tory strategy of focusing the entire campaign on the character of Tony Blair has backfired badly. For anybody who is not anti-American, which still includes most of the British public, there is no doubt that Tony Blair�s motives were sincere, whether or not the war was just. The Liberal Democrats� Charles Kennedy, the only consistently anti-war party leader, has never accused Blair of lying. But Michael Howard, the Tory leader who wants to be taken seriously as an alternative prime minister, calls the prime minister a liar every time he speaks. The public have their reservations about Blair, and some of them have resentments towards the United States, but nobody thinks it is statesmanlike to descend to vulgar abuse.
No, the character issue is a diversionary tactic: the Tories actually voted for the war, including Michael Howard, and so they cannot attack the decision itself. Instead, their campaign has been relentlessly ad hominem. Worse still, they have tried to have it both ways: first Howard said he would not have supported the war if he had known then that Saddam�s weapons of mass destruction did not exist. That was why President Bush made him persona non grata during the last US election: the Democrats were able to exploit Howard�s attacks on Blair. Howard also denounced Blair after each of the two official inquiries by Lords Hutton and Butler had actually cleared him of deliberate mendacity. Then Howard retaliated against the White House by refusing to congratulate the President after his re-election – a petty gesture which merely added insult to injury and ensured that as long as Howard is leader, the White House is barred to the Tories. This has never happened before; no previous Tory leader has been so inept. Now the Howard line is that he would have supported regime change under all circumstances, but would have shared more information – intelligence and legal advice – with the public. This is inconsistent with his previous position, and also inherently implausible: Tories tend to be hostile to freedom of information whenever national security is at stake.
In short, Michael Howard has had more contortions on Iraq than Houdini, yet he has the cheek to attack Blair�s character. Not surprisingly, this line of attack has led nowhere. In the last week the Tories have fallen back in the polls to a position almost as weak as in 1997 and 2001. Their decision to dump Iain Duncan Smith, the last leader, in October 2003 was supposed to be an act of damage limitation. Howard was supposed to be a safe pair of hands. It is now obvious that he was nothing of the kind, and the Tories� showing is much worse than it was under Duncan Smith.
Michael Howard is the first Jewish leader of the Conservative Party since Benjamin Disraeli (who was, however, baptised) more than a century ago. Disraeli�s philosophy of Two Nations (the phrase comes from his early novel Sybil) combined with realpolitik and careful attention to the balance of power (which earned him Bismarck�s admiration) is exactly what the Tories today need. This is the kind of hard-headed foreign policy and compassionate conservatism that Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush have practised with such success.
Disraeli�s greatest coup was his purchase of the Suez Canal with the help of a loan from Rothschild�s bank, which secured the trade routes to India and the Far East for the British until Nasser nationalised the canal in 1956 and precipitated the Suez war. Ironically, Oliver Letwin, who is Howard�s finance spokesman and shadow chancellor of the exchequer, has worked for N. M. Rothschild for some 20 years, first heading their privatisation unit and latterly as a director. If Howard had listened to Letwin�s advice, the Tories might have had a much more Disraelian manifesto: serious tax cuts aimed at the poor as well as the rich, family friendly policies, much less emphasis on immigration and a robust defence of Atlanticism.
Instead, we have heard nothing but �Send a message to Mr Blair�. The British electorate is one of the most sophisticated in the world. They know when they are being patronised, and they don�t like it. There are many ways of sending a message to the prime minister – protests are part of democracy – but electing a government is a far more serious business. You must live with the consequences for at least four years, and if they get wrong, probably much longer. So elections are not for sending messages, and parties that genuinely want power don�t talk to the voters like that.
My view is that the emphasis on Blair�s character has actually helped him. For all his many unattractive traits – yesterday he and his wife gave an interview to the Sun, Rupert Murdoch�s biggest tabloid, in which they allowed a photographer to evoke comments about the prime minister�s sexual prowess – Blair�s character is actually his greatest strength. He has avoided the issue of when exactly he will step down – he has promised to go before the next election, at the latest in 2010 – and instead has reminded people of his readiness to risk unpopularity to do the right thing. As Disraeli told the daughter of Lord Salisbury: �You will find as you grow older that courage is the rarest of all qualities to be found in public life.� Tony Blair has demonstrated that he has courage. For that, the British people have forgiven him all his other faults.
(further updates when we have results)