The conventional wisdom has long held that Donald Trump is a divisive figure within the Republican Party and that many moderate voters will abandon him if he is the party’s nominee. Nikki Haley’s primary campaign, during which she has received nearly 40 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, is widely viewed as evidence for this proposition. President Biden meanwhile is viewed as a consensus candidate who will unite Democrats and win the general election against such a divisive figure as Trump.
It turns out that this view—that Biden is more the consensus candidate among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans—is wrong. This is a developing edge that may give Trump an advantage in the general-election campaign.
A new Harvard-Harris poll conducted this week gives Trump a six-point lead (48 percent to 42 percent) over Biden in a general-election matchup. Trump leads by a small margin (42 percent to 39 percent) among independent voters, which is an important factor of his advantage over Biden. Whichever candidate carries independents will likely win the general election. Trump’s slight advantage here bodes well for his general-election campaign.
But there is a more important reason for Trump’s lead over Biden: Trump unites Republicans to a much greater degree than Biden unites Democrats. Trump, for example, wins the support of 90 percent of Republican voters, among whom only 5 percent say they will vote for Biden. At the same time, Biden wins just 82 percent of Democratic voters, and 12 percent say they will vote for Trump. It appears that Trump’s lead over Biden is based in large part upon his ability to unite Republicans, and then to attract a fair number of Democrats to his side. Trump, surprisingly, is now the consensus candidate and Biden the divisive one. (Other recent polls point to the same conclusion.)
As for Nikki Haley, the import of her performances in New Hampshire and South Carolina looks to be a mirage. According to this new Harris Poll, Trump has an overwhelming lead over Haley among Republicans at the national level: some 78 percent of GOP voters prefer Trump compared to just 14 percent who support Haley. This strongly suggests that many of those votes for Haley in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries came from crossover Democrats, most of whom are likely to vote for Biden in the general election. In view of these preferences, there is no chance that Haley can succeed in wresting the Republican presidential nomination from Donald Trump.
Haley has claimed to be a stronger candidate than Trump in a general-election matchup against Biden. She has pointed to some poll numbers to support that claim, but the new Harris survey does not support this argument. According to this poll, she would lose to Biden in a two-way race, 41 percent to 39 percent, with many voters still undecided. The reason for her loss: she is far less popular than Trump among Republican voters. In a race against Biden, just 64 percent of Republicans say they would voter for her, compared to 90 percent who favor Trump in that matchup. Haley, in short, is a weak candidate.
As for the general election, the matchups improve for Trump when a third-party candidate is introduced into the mix. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added to the race as an alternative, he picks up 20 percent of Democrats but only nine percent of Republicans (and 18 percent of independents). In comparison to Trump, who unites Republicans and keeps them from peeling off for Kennedy, Biden is a fragile candidate. For this reason, Trump’s advantage grows to seven points over Biden (42% to 35%) when Kennedy is included in the polling. That is bad news for Biden, since Kennedy says he is in the race to stay.
There is no mystery as to why Trump has taken the lead in the presidential campaign, or why he unites Republicans to a greater degree than Biden unites Democrats. Some 62 percent of voters in the Harris poll say the country is on the wrong track under Biden, compared to 32 percent who think it is on the right track. Biden’s popularity remains underwater, with more than 50 percent of voters expressing disapproval of his record. The two most important issues according to voters are immigration and inflation—the two issues where Trump racks up the largest advantage over Biden. In addition, some 59 percent of voters, and 32 percent of Democrats, doubt that Biden is mentally fit to hold the presidential office.
The developing presidential campaign has turned the accepted narrative on its head. Donald Trump, by uniting Republicans, attracting independents, and insulating himself against a third-party challenge, has emerged as the consensus candidate, while President Biden is now the more divisive candidate, showing weakness among Democratic voters, sinking appeal among independents, and vulnerability to Kennedy’s third-party challenge. That is a surprising turnabout, given where voters stood just a year or even six months ago, but it is unquestionably the campaign’s new dynamic.
This may explain the fixation among Democrats on finding another candidate to replace Biden, as well as their heated efforts to prosecute Trump in criminal cases in order to disqualify him from the presidency. Those Democratic leaders believe that Biden can beat Haley or any Republican besides Trump—and that Trump, as long as he is permitted to stay in the race, represents a formidable challenge.